How will growing geopolitical tensions affect elite sport? 

What are we seeing?  

• The established global order dominated by US leadership and international institutions is giving way to a more multipolar world with competing powers and narrowing national interests. 
• The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated negative trends, including rising inequality, declining development progress, and distrust of public authorities and experts. 
• This complex and rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape presents significant challenges for governments and the international community. 

What can we expect?  

• Competition between the United States and China will intensify, with both vying for influence in regions like Asia-Pacific, Europe and Africa. 
• Countries will shift alliances and partnerships as they reassess their alignments with the evolving global order, potentially leading to the formation of new alliances and realignment of existing ones.  

What might this mean for sport and recreation?  

• Increased security costs and threats of terrorism at sporting events due to geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to conflicts and disputes among fans and disrupting athlete participation. 
• Nationalism may overshadow the sporting spirit in team sports, while individual sports may see less impact with a focus on athlete performance rather than nationality. 
• Politicisation of sport could lead to increased doping and unethical practices, challenging the integrity of governing bodies, but also create opportunities for New Zealand to leverage its reputation for integrity and neutrality. 

What questions should we be asking ourselves today?  

• How can sports diplomacy effectively reduce political and military conflicts, and what strategies can build on sport's soft power in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions? 
• What role can sports events play in rebuilding global cohesion and cooperation in the face of geopolitical fragmentation, and how can the unifying power of sport be leveraged for diplomacy and peacebuilding? 
• How should sports adapt their athlete pathways and funding models to potential shifts towards mega-leagues and privately owned events.